Lately, articles have begun to appear in learned foreign affairs journals discussing how to help minority regions break away from the Russian Federation. To most Russians, not just Putin and his inner circle, it sounds more like revenge and worse. Western leaders and opinion-makers have fixated on the notion that Russia should be forced to pay for the damage done to Ukraine. One wonders what made EU leaders believe that Hungary and Poland were more committed to European values. (The argument that Bush ‘41 never formalized the assurances is specious the President of the United States made a commitment, however delivered.) Similarly, EU leaders while working hard to incorporate Eastern European countries into the EU, repeatedly told the Russians that their “values were incompatible” with Europe. Bush’s assurances to Russia that we would not expand NATO nor encourage EU eastward expansion beyond the incorporation of the former East Germany into the German Federal Republic. Let’s not repeat the mistake of the administrations that followed President George H. Mishandling Turkey threatens stability in the Eastern Mediterranean getting Russia wrong threatens stability across the entire Eurasian Heartland. The same logic applies to Russia but the stakes are much higher. Greece believes that a European Turkey inside the EU, that acts European, ceases to be a threat. Why would Greece, the target of Turkey’s revanchist rhetoric and the victim of constant Turkish incursions into its sovereign airspace and territorial waters, support Turkish accession? Simply, the Greeks realize that Turkish EU membership – always contingent on full acceptance and implementation of the EU’s ‘acquis communautaire’ which commits member countries to democracy, respect for human rights, and recognizing the sovereign boundaries of all EU countries – will do more for their security than a defense budget larger in GDP terms (this year) than that of the United States. This is a remarkably short-sighted stance. Bereft of a scapegoat, European leaders have now made it clear that they will never agree to full Turkish membership. This excuse evaporated at the 1999 Helsinki EU Summit when Greece announced its support for Turkish accession. Initially, European leaders put off American pressure by claiming they really wanted to bring Turkey in the EU but were stymied by a Greek veto. seemed to argue, would inspire Turkey to reform its human rights and democratic deficit afterwards. had pushed European leaders on Turkish accession hoping to tie Turkey more firmly to the West but made the mistake of suggesting that membership come first. For its part, the then-Kemalist ‘deep state’ Turkish leadership proved unwilling to take the concrete steps needed to meet EU requirements on democracy and human rights. ![]() The first was an Islamophobia shared by almost all EU member states and explicitly articulated at times by EU leaders. Turkey’s application for EU membership foundered on two obstacles. ![]() Otherwise, it would just be kicking the can down the road. Europe needs to offer a credible invitation to Turkey and Russia to join the EU if it wants a permanent end to the threats. Russia’s Putin has done Erdogan one better and actually launched an irredentist war. Today, Turkey has virtually declared the Lausanne Treaty, which established its post-World War I boundaries, as inoperative and threatens to attack and ‘recover’ the Aegean Islands the treaty granted to Greece in 1922. Ruling out an invitation to Russia to join either NATO or the EU gave Vladimir Putin the opportunity to turn Russia into an authoritarian, revanchist, and irredentist state as well. Refusal to play straight with Turkey when it first applied for membership enabled the rise to power of an authoritarian revanchist and irredentist Turkish leader, Recep Tayip Erdogan. Keeping Turkey and Russia out of the European Union perversely created the two biggest direct threats to the security of EU member states.
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